The buoyancy of the market was fuelled with optimism at this year’s Onshore Wind conference. Wind generation provides the biggest source of clean electricity in the UK, with 30GW of onshore and offshore installed and a further 900MW of onshore wind successfully securing contracts in the latest Contracts for Difference (CfD) round (AR6). Appetite in the market is strong, developers are thirsty for change and dedicated to driving the market despite the barriers, evident in the conference with double the number of attendees (~800 people) and stretching across two days rather than one.
Our key takeaways:
- Onshore wind is now a UK project
- Political urgency replaces political will
- Grid remains the #1 barrier, but change is on the horizon
- Planning bottlenecks expected despite reversal of defacto ban in England
Onshore wind is now a UK project
There was optimism at the conference that onshore wind is now a UK Project, rather than just a Scottish one, with huge growth opportunities in England, Wales and Northern Ireland in addition to Scotland. All 4 nations need to collaborate to unblock common barriers on grid and planning. However, it is quite clear that one size does not fit all (quite literally in Northern Ireland with tip height restrictions that do not suit modern turbines). Scotland will continue to do the heavy lifting of meeting the 2030 onshore wind target with more land available to develop on with less constraints, however there is a key opportunity for repowering and new sites in England (8MW secured AR6 in England) as well as new sites in Wales (that do not touch peat!), with a Welsh state-owned company (Trydan Gwyrdd Cymru, established 2 years before GB Energy) working on unlocking state-owned land for development opportunities.
Political urgency replaces political will
I think it’s fair to say that the renewable industry has been on a political rollercoaster over the years with back and forth of policy; start and stop of subsidies and boom and bust of markets. However, Ed Milliband’s opening speech was impatiently passionate. I’ve seen a lot of these over the years and I’m normally left feeling quite empty and frustrated, but this speech felt different. There was a real urgency and impatience to his message of enabling renewables. The political narrative and need for onshore wind have changed too – it’s no longer regarded as something simply needed to meet our net zero future. It is increasingly recognised that wind will provide affordable energy, enable energy security, and provide high quality jobs (as well as meeting our climate goals latterly). And we all know that money speaks.
The Government has already made quick decisions and had a positive impact on the onshore wind market. They have established a ‘Mission Control Centre’ to deliver on the UK being a ‘Clean Energy Superpower’, aligning internal departments on priorities and action. They have taken quick and decisive action coming into power (overturning the defacto ban on onshore wind in England) and want to halve the time on evidence collection to inform decisions (3 months rather than 6 for the Onshore Wind Task Force). These quick decisions and definite actions provide the start to a positive investment environment for wind, but momentum will be key to continue this.
Despite the optimism among attendees, there was also an air of warnings for the UK Government and the English wind market, to look to Scotland as they’ve already done th majority of onshore wind and have a decade of experience that can and should be learnt from (and more recently the Onshore Sector Deal), rather than wasting time starting from scratch. Time really is of the essence, given that we have 6 years left to meet the 2030 target and timelines for grid and planning are beyond this today.
The cynic in me could see some of this as a fantastic PR campaign, but we will wait and see what promises are delivered on and what action plan is resultant by the end of the year. Then again a marketing campaign could well be more impactful than any policy anyway (I’m now thinking of all those startups that secure serious cash with little else than marketing) … fingers crossed either way!
Grid remains the #1 barrier, but change on the horizon
As you would expect there was much discussion about grid at Onshore Wind with grid costs, connections and waiting times being key barriers holding projects back from progressing. This is unsustainable and reform is desperately needed to rapidly enable developers to support the Governments in meeting the 2030 targets.
A 200% increase in grid costs during the development of a project is every developer’s worst nightmare, but regularly occurs in today’s market. Add this to a 10 year wait to get connected and it’s quite clear that this is killing projects and challenging investor confidence,as explained by a panel of the big-3 developers (EDF, SSE, SPR). Whilst developers have spent years battling this, the situation is becoming unsustainable and needs reform to enable cost-effective renewable development. On the flipside given that ultimately the customer pays for the grid upgrades, it’s difficult to justify proactive upgrades. A clear strategy and blueprint for our future grid was discussed, although we also don’t want to spend years waiting on that.
The existing first-come, first-served queue system desperately needs to change. Currently there is ~720GW in the grid connection queue to 2050, at various stages of ‘ready to build’, causing a traffic jam to projects progressing. Some of this is due to portfolio owners putting in 100s of speculative grid applications with the intention to only take a very small number forward. With only 100-200GW required by 2030 to meet the targets it’s clear to see the extent of the problem. There is a clear need to prioritise, rationalise and reform the grid queues to enable projects that are genuinely ready to build. Simply being shovel ready is not enough – there is a need to ensure it’s fully consented, has the funding secured, and provides the right technology.
Planning bottlenecks expected despite reversal of defacto ban in England
There were celebrations all round that the defacto ban on onshore wind in England has been lifted, but with mixed feelings on how this will translate into actual projects. It’s clear that developers in the market are attempting to resurrect old English projects that were paused due to the ban, as quick, easy wins. However if a site hasn’t been identified and companies are now only just starting to look at the market, it’s unlikely that we will see immediate action due to the timelines required to get projects through the increasingly under-resourced planning authorities (with now very limited experience and knowledge of consenting onshore wind in England). This can only add to the strain presented by Optimat’s recent study of the 400% increase in expertise required by 2027 in the onshore wind job market to deliver on onshore wind growth targets.
The ban being lifted won’t work on its own. Other key barriers discussed throughout the conference on planning include aviation, peat and the reform to social benefits. As always, us engineers always seem to forget about people too. With less onshore wind in England and more historic objections to it, combined with modern technology nearly doubling in size in the last decade, getting the general population onboard with it is likely going to be tough and I think has been overlooked somewhat. As one of very few companies that has secured consent for onshore wind in England in the past 10 years (with a 3-turbine site in the Midlands) before Labour came into power earlier this year, we have firsthand experience of how to approach the English market and work with key stakeholders.